Economy

The economy of Thailand is export-dependent, with exports accounting for 60% of GDP. The exchange rate has reached US$37.00 (GDP $7.3 trln baht) as of October 26, 2006, for a nominal GDP at market rates of approximately US$ 200 bln. This keeps Thailand as the 2nd largest economy in Southeast Asia, after Indonesia, a position it has held for many years. Thailand's recovery from the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis relied on exports, largely on external demand from the United States and other foreign markets. The Thaksin government took office in February 2001 with the intention of stimulating domestic demand and reducing Thailand's reliance on foreign trade and investment. Since then, the Thaksin administration has refined its economic message, embracing a 'dual track' economic policy that combines domestic stimulus with Thailand's traditional promotion of open markets and foreign investment. This set of policies are popularly known as Thaksinomics. Weak export demand held 2001 GDP growth to 1.9%. In 2002-3, however, domestic stimulus and export revival fuelled a better performance, with real GDP growth at 5.3% and 6.3% respectively.

Economic Background

After enjoying the world's highest growth rate from 1985 to 1995 - averaging almost 9% annually - increased pressure on Thailand's currency, the baht, in 1997 led to a crisis that uncovered financial sector weaknesses and forced the government to float the currency. Long pegged at 25 to the US dollar, the baht reached its lowest point of 56 to the US dollar in January 1998 and the economy contracted by 10.2% that same year. The collapse prompted a wider Asian financial crisis.

Thailand entered a recovery stage in 1998, expanding 4.2% and grew 4.4% in 2000, largely due to strong exports - which increased about 20% in 2000. Growth was dampened by a softening of the global economy in 2001, but picked up in the subsequent years due to strong growth in China and the various domestic stimulation programs of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, popularly known as Thaksinomics. Growth in 2003 and 2004 was over 6% annually.

Although the economy has demonstrated moderate positive growth since 1999, future performance depends on continued reform of the financial sector, corporate debt restructuring, attracting foreign investment, and increasing exports. Telecommunications, roadways, electricity generation and ports showed increasing strain during the period of sustained economic growth and may pose a future challenge. Thailand's growing shortage of engineers and skilled technical personnel may limit its future technological creativity and productivity.

Regional Differences

Bangkok and its environs are the most prosperous part of Thailand, and the infertile northeast is the poorest. An overriding concern of successive Thai Governments, and a particularly strong focus of the recently ousted Thaksin government, has been to reduce these regional income differentials, which have been exacerbated by rapid economic growth in and around Bangkok and the financial crisis. The government is trying to stimulate provincial economic growth with programs such as the Eastern Seaboard project and the development of an alternate deep-sea port on Thailand's southern peninsula. It also is conducting discussions with Malaysia to focus on economic development along the Thai-Malaysian border.

Trade

The United States is Thailand's largest export market and second-largest supplier after Japan. While Thailand's traditional major markets have been North America, Japan, and Europe, economic recovery among Thailand's regional trading partners has helped Thai export growth (5.8% in 2002). Recovery from the financial crisis depended heavily on increased exports to the rest of Asia and the United States. Since 2005, the rapid ramp-up in export of automobiles of Japanese makes (esp. Toyota, Nissan, Isuzu) has helped to dramatically improve the trade balance, with over 1 million cars produced last year. As such, Thailand has joined the ranks of the world's top ten automobile exporting nations.

Machinery and parts, vehicles, electronic integrated circuits, chemicals, crude oil and fuels, and iron and steel are among Thailand's principal imports. The recent increase in import levels (4.6% in 2002) reflects the need to fuel the production of high-technology items and vehicles.

Thailand is a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the Cairns Group of agricultural exporters. Thailand is part of the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA). Thailand has actively pursued free trade agreements. A China-Thailand Free Trade Agreement (FTA) commenced in October 2003. This agreement was limited to agricultural products, with more comprehensive FTA to be agreed by 2010. Thailand also has a limited Free Trade Agreement with India, which commenced in 2003; and a comprehensive Australia-Thailand Free Trade Agreement which started 1 January 2005. Thailand started free trade negotiations with Japan in February 2004, and an in-principle agreement was agreed in September 2005. Negotiations for a US-Thailand Free Trade Agreement are underway, with the fifth round of meetings held in November 2005.

Tourism

Tourism contributes significantly to the Thai economy, and the industry has benefited from the Thai baht's depreciation and Thailand's stability. Tourist arrivals in 2002 (10.9 million) reflected a 7.3% increase from the previous year (10.1 million).